Windstorm Update Q2 2021

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, although this year, Hurricane Ana started the season in May. The first two months of the hurricane season are typically quiet, with 82% of all named storms historically happening in August, September, and October, with the peak around mid-September.

All forecasters are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2021, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor. Average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic are near normal, while the subtropical Atlantic is much warmer than average. These conditions are thought to favor increased hurricane activity.

The chart below plots the 2021 forecasts from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and Colorado State University (CSU). It also shows 10-year, as well as 71-year averages, which is to the beginning of the modern records.