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Press release

Shifting macroeconomic and geopolitical structures undermining business confidence in 2024

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13/03/2024

London | 13 March, 2024

Marsh, the world’s leading insurance broker and risk advisor and a business of Marsh McLennan, today released its 2024 Political Risk Report, which outlines the major trends in the current global political and economic landscape that will impact multinationals and investors in the year ahead.

The report, published by Marsh Specialty, cites how long-term uncertainty – in what is globally the biggest election year in history – is stemming from macroeconomic competition and geopolitical insecurity. This will create even greater economic divergence between sectors and economies, amid growing government intervention and the increasing frequency of harder-to-predict disruptive security events.

The report also highlights that, despite continued volatility and uncertainty, there are substantial global growth opportunities that organisations may benefit from, if these risks are managed effectively.  

According to the report, a record number of voters heading to the polls this year are likely to focus on internal economic and international security concerns. In addition, the weaponisation of artificial intelligence (AI) by non-state groups, adversarial states, politicians, and individuals to amplify misinformation and disinformation will further exacerbate policy uncertainty and political violence risks for organisations and investors.

The report also states that fragile macroeconomic conditions in the wake of the 2024 elections will be further stressed by high debt levels among companies and governments. This, combined with potential weak growth in advanced geographies, could disrupt governmental investment policies and contribute to heightened credit, supply chain, and business interruption risks for organisations.

The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024, published in partnership with Marsh McLennan and others, asserts that cooperation on urgent global issues could be in increasingly short supply in the next decade, requiring new approaches to addressing risks. The Political Risk Report pinpoints climate change and the energy transition as particularly vulnerable to future clashes among nation-level policymakers, market forces, and the international consensus in the year ahead.

Robert Perry, Global Political Risks & Structured Credit Leader, Marsh Specialty, said: “The outcomes of the elections taking place this year are set to direct the course of global events for the next decade and beyond. While the world feels like a riskier place in such a time of such macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, businesses that effectively manage and transfer risks in this rapidly-changing environment will be well-positioned to seize on future growth opportunities and continue to thrive.”

About Marsh

Marsh is the world’s leading insurance broker and risk advisor. With more than 45,000 colleagues advising clients in over 130 countries, Marsh serves commercial and individual clients with data-driven risk solutions and advisory services. Marsh is a business of Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC), the world’s leading professional services firm in the areas of risk, strategy and people. With annual revenue of $23 billion, Marsh McLennan helps clients navigate an increasingly dynamic and complex environment through four market-leading businesses: Marsh, Guy Carpenter, Mercer and Oliver Wyman. For more information, visit marsh.com, and follow us on LinkedIn and X.

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